Projecting insect voltinism under high and low greenhouse gas emission conditions.

نویسندگان

  • Shi Chen
  • Shelby J Fleischer
  • Patrick C Tobin
  • Michael C Saunders
چکیده

We develop individual-based Monte Carlo methods to explore how climate change can alter insect voltinism under varying greenhouse gas emissions scenarios by using input distributions of diapause termination or spring emergence, development rate, and diapause initiation, linked to daily temperature and photoperiod. We show concurrence of these projections with a field dataset, and then explore changes in grape berry moth, Paralobesia viteana (Clemens), voltinism that may occur with climate projections developed from the average of three climate models using two different future emissions scenarios from the International Panel of Climate Change (IPCC). Based on historical climate data from 1960 to 2008, and projected downscaled climate data until 2099 under both high (A1fi) and low (B1) greenhouse gas emission scenarios, we used concepts of P. viteana biology to estimate distributions of individuals entering successive generations per year. Under the low emissions scenario, we observed an earlier emergence from diapause and a shift in mean voltinism from 2.8 to 3.1 generations per year, with a fraction of the population achieving a fourth generation. Under the high emissions scenario, up to 3.6 mean generations per year were projected by the end of this century, with a very small fraction of the population achieving a fifth generation. Changes in voltinism in this and other species in response to climate change likely will cause significant economic and ecological impacts, and the methods presented here can be readily adapted to other species for which the input distributions are reasonably approximated.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Risk Factors among Greenhouse Farmers in Gaza Strip

Greenhouse farmers are exposed to many risk factors during work. This paper characterized the risk factors and discussed their health impacts among greenhouse farmers. Risk factors under greenhouse conditions emerged from pesticide application and greenhouse gas emission from soil during day. Risk factors among farmers were determined by recording toxicity symptoms, acute and chronic obstructiv...

متن کامل

Estimation of gas emission released from a municipal solid waste landfill site through a modeling approach: A case study, Sanandaj, Iran

Sanitary landfill is the common strategy for municipal solid waste management in developing countries. Anaerobic decomposition of disposed wastes in landfill under favorable conditions will lead to the landfill gas (LFG) emissions, considering as emerging air pollutants. The emission of greenhouse gases, including methane, resulting from municipal solid waste disposal and treatment processes ar...

متن کامل

Calorific and greenhouse gas emission in municipal solid waste treatment using biodrying

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Urban intensity and activities produce a large amount of biodegradable municipal solid waste. Therefore, biodrying processing was adopted to ensure the conversion into Refuse Derived Fuel and greenhouse gases. METHODS: This study was performed at a greenhouse, using six biodrying reactors made from acrylic material, and equipped...

متن کامل

Comparison of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission footprint caused by agricultural products in greenhouses and open field in Iran

Decisions can be taken to increase energy efficiency and to mitigate the emissions to the environment by examining the energy audit and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions footprint of crop production in different ways and in different regions, with comparable principles. In this study, energy consumption and energy indices of tomatoes production in four regions of Iran including East Azerbaijan...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:
  • Environmental entomology

دوره 40 3  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2011